October 2020 Outlook

To say the world has changed since our past article would be an understatement. Clearly there is total media saturation on what has to be one of the globe’s worst health crisis in history and its ramifications on both human and economic functions. In our last paper, we had communicated and forecast cash rates to […]

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November 2019 Outlook

The recurring theme from the Governor of the RBA is that interest rates will remain low for some time to come. He continually reiterates this theme through the monetary policy statements and other channels. This is as a result of low global interest rates. The questions and uncertainty that becomes apparent from here on is […]

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July 2019 Outlook

Since our last Outlook, interest rates have been reduced twice by the central bank. The second cut had forecasters divided as to the timing, but clearly the rate reduction had been fully priced and expected by the market. The RBA finally abolished the 5.00% employment benchmark that it had been linking policy with, as a […]

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March 2019 Outlook

It has been a while since our last interest rate outlook paper (Oct 2018), and the landscape appears to have changed. In our last Outlook, we tended to agree with a number of other forecasters that interest rates have a tightening bias, but wouldn’t look to move until late 2019 at the earliest. We feel […]

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October 2018 Outlook

AUGUST KEY POINTS *¹TOTAL DWELLING UNITS The trend estimate for total dwellings approved fell 1.9% in August. The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved fell 9.4% in August *²PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 1.2% in August. The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses fell 1.9% in […]

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July 2018 Outlook

In FY 16-17, fuel prices were 124c per litre on a national average, whilst diesel’s average at the same time was 125c per litre. In FY 15-16, they were 122c and 123c average respectively. We roll the clock forward to the current period and fuel is closer to 150c per litre and diesel up to […]

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March 2018 Outlook

We are at the at the end of quarter one 2018 and perhaps at a crossroad. The major global economies are witnessing growth and GFC is almost a forgotten blight on the landscape. Central banks are either raising interest rates as in the case of the US, or withdrawing surplus liquidity from their money supply […]

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August 2017 Outlook

The current interest rate environment is benign with shortened periods of volatility, generally settling down within two to three weeks. This is a pattern which has repeated itself for the past 18mths – 2years with little or merely passing interest from borrowers to address any debt and hedging exposures. Indeed, a fair amount of activity […]

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February 2017 Outlook

Interesting, the adjective is defined as arousing curiosity or interest; holding or catching the attention, with synonyms of absorbing, engrossing, fascinating, riveting, compelling, spellbinding, etc. Whilst some of the synonyms may be a little far stretched, the past year could certainly be assessed as interesting to say the least. The questions now is ‘has the […]

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August 2016 Outlook

Sometimes it can be hard to fight City Hall. The RBA has delivered a much expected interest rate cut and yet most of us don’t feel that bullish about economic conditions. An explanation for part of this feeling is the much tighter capital conditions that are apparent in the bank debt funding market and subsequent […]

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March 2016 Outlook

Every day appears somewhat like Groundhog Day, when reviewing the RBA setting of its targeted cash rate. That’s not to say that there isn’t market volatility in the yield curve and fixed rates and we have certainly witnessed significant volatility in the AUD currency. So in reviewing the current market conditions and value opportunities, should […]

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May 2014 Outlook

As we head into the federal budget with a conservative government at the helm, it would appear that the strategy of leaking bad news of fiscal restraint and austerity measures are having an impact on consumer sentiment at least. The Weekly ANZ – Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey has taken a 4% drop in a […]

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November 2013 Outlook

With the end of 2013 fast approaching we thought it timely to provide a brief update on the capital markets and some detail on recent transactions closed by Stamford. Through the course of this year we have seen an increased supply of capital across the whole stack. This has been particularly noticeable in the structured […]

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May 2013 Outlook

Great to see the RBA delivered on a broadly unexpected timing of a 25 bpt rate cut yesterday. There has been no shortage of media coverage around interest rates of late and the timing of a ‘line ball’ call of whether the RBA ease. As the central bank has acted to reduce the cash rate […]

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August 2012 Outlook

Prior to 2008, the $2.6 billion structured capital market for commercial property was, in our experience, more liquid in sub $5 million exposures as opposed to larger mezzanine deals. This was a reflection of the market risk appetite and demand at the time given structured debt facilities of $1 million to $5 million were associated […]

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April 2012 Outlook

Russell has over 20 years’ experience at a senior executive level in financial markets, specifically capital markets sales and treasury risk management. Russell has expertise in assisting clients with all their treasury risk management requirements and has worked with organisations across ASX 200 as well as having guided a number of mid-tier clients through solutions […]

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February 2012 Outlook

The early part of 2012 has seen weak sentiment in the commercial real estate market carry through from the later part of 2011. General business confidence is also low, particularly in those parts of the economy not benefitting from the strength in the resources sector. Click here to view the full Stamford Insight.

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